Understand

Analysis · Taxation · Counter-intuition

The Laffer Curve

Taxing at 0% raises €0. Taxing at 100% also raises €0. In between, revenues rise, peak, then fall. France has passed that peak — on some taxes. This isn't a liberal opinion: it's arithmetic.

130 M€ raised per year by the 75% tax — the target was €1 billion
+21% in corporate tax revenues after cutting the rate from 33% to 25% (France, 2017–2022)
68% marginal rate (what the state takes on each extra euro earned) from €80,000 gross — 32 cents left
01

0% and 100% have one thing in common

There are two tax rates that raise exactly zero euros for the state. The first, 0%, is obvious. The second, 100%, is mechanical: nobody works if the state takes everything. In between, revenues form a curve — rising, peaking, then falling. That's the Laffer curve, sketched on a restaurant napkin in 1974.

What's less obvious: the peak is not the same for every tax. VAT has its peak. Corporate tax has its own — lower, because companies can relocate. A minimum wage worker can't move to Switzerland overnight; a multinational can. The more mobile the tax base, the lower the peak.

"Too much tax kills the tax." Arthur Laffer, 1974 — and governments pretend not to see it

Pick a tax — see where France stands on the curve relative to the theoretical peak.

💡 The key takeaway The Laffer curve isn't ideology — it's an arithmetic constraint. It doesn't say where the peak is: that's where the debate starts. It only says that there is a point beyond which raising the rate reduces revenues. For some French taxes, that point has been passed.
02

When rates rise, people adapt — always

The Laffer curve doesn't fall from the sky. It emerges from human behaviour. When the state takes a growing share of each additional euro earned — this is the marginal rate: not an average across all your income, but what disappears on your next euro — people find exits. Not through fraud, but through elementary logic. Working an extra hour to keep 28 cents is no longer worth it.

These adaptations have precise names — and figures. They're not abstract theories. They're rational responses to perverse incentives, documented, measured, repeated every time levies exceed the profitability threshold of effort.

12,000 millionaires left France in 2023. European record (Henley & Partners 2023) — they take their tax base with them

Click a mechanism to see the concrete examples.

03

You cut taxes — and you collect more

You cut taxes — and revenues increase. It seems absurd. Yet that's exactly what France experienced between 2017 and 2022: corporate tax was cut from 33% to 25%. Revenues jumped by €7 billion (+21%). Companies declared more profits in France, because tax arbitrage to Ireland or Luxembourg had become less profitable. At 33%, France was past the Laffer peak for this tax. By cutting the rate, it recovered the base that had fled.

This isn't a French exception. In the UK, corporate tax was cut from 28% to 19% between 2010 and 2016 — revenues rose. Ireland has maintained a 12.5% rate since 2003 and collects proportionally more corporate tax than France. And the 2013–2014 75% tax provided the reverse demonstration: target €1 billion per year, result €130 million. Quietly abandoned after two years. Same curve, same mechanisms — in both directions.

"33% → 25%: +€7bn. Less to take more." Corporate tax, France, 2017–2022 — DGFiP / PLF 2023
📉 Corporate tax was cut from 33% → 25% between 2017 and 2022

How do you think tax revenues changed?

💡 The key takeaway These results don't prove that all taxes should be low. They prove that some rates exceed the peak. And beyond the peak, raising the rate is counterproductive. This isn't an ideological conclusion: it's what state revenues actually recorded — in France, the UK, Ireland.
04

Finding the peak — that's not the goal

The Laffer curve is often misunderstood, even by its supporters. Some conclude: "we just need to find the right rate — the one that maximises revenues." But for a liberal, this reasoning inverts the priorities. Maximising tax revenues is not an end in itself. It's optimising extraction, not freedom. A state seeking the Laffer peak seeks to take the maximum possible without killing the base. That's not the same as seeking to leave people free to make their own choices.

There's also a practical reason. The Laffer peak is a moving target — it shifts with capital mobility and international tax competition. A state chasing this peak only manages to chase an illusion. And even if it reached it: at the "peak," the rate is still high, investment still penalised, entrepreneurial risk still poorly rewarded. Maximum tax revenue is not maximum prosperity. These are two different curves — and they don't cross at the same point.

"Finding the peak means optimising extraction — not freedom." The Laffer curve is a constraint, not a target

Click an argument to expand it.

💡 The key takeaway The Laffer curve is valuable for avoiding the counterproductive. But it doesn't say where taxation should be — only where it cannot be. The ceiling isn't the target. Freedom and property are the target. The rest is management.
05

The objections — flipped

The Laffer curve has a bad reputation on the left — associated with Reagan, the rich, endless tax cuts. Some criticisms are legitimate. Others describe exactly what's already happening in the current system. Here are the four main ones.

Click a card to flip the objection.

01 💰

"It's a theory to justify tax cuts for the rich."

And the reality? →
01

The Laffer effect also applies to VAT — the most regressive tax, proportionally heavier on low incomes. Cutting VAT on basic goods is a Laffer effect that benefits the poor. The tool is neutral. What you do with it is a political choice.

02 📍

"Nobody knows where the peak is — so it's useless."

And the reality? →
02

Not knowing the exact speed at which your brakes fail isn't a reason to drive at 300 km/h. France applied a 75% tax — and collected 87% less than expected. It cut corporate tax to 25% — and collected 21% more. Both experiments have already happened. On French soil.

03 🏛️

"Reagan cut taxes, the deficit exploded."

And the reality? →
03

It worked. Federal tax revenues rose 76% between 1980 and 1989. The Laffer effect worked. The deficit exploded because Reagan literally had the Cold War to win — he chose to outspend the USSR on weapons, and he won. That was a deliberate strategic decision, entirely unrelated to the Laffer curve. Blaming Laffer for Reagan's deficit is confusing the engine with the steering wheel: revenues followed the curve — the driver chose to floor spending.

04 🎲

"Economists disagree on the Laffer effect."

And the reality? →
04

For small rises in tight markets (Card & Krueger), the effect is weak. Nobody disputes that 0% and 100% raise €0. The disagreement is about where the peak sits — not whether the curve exists. It's like debating the exact altitude of Everest while refusing to admit it's tall.

The curve exists. France lived it. Twice.

The Laffer curve doesn't say taxes should be low. It says they can't be infinite. What politicians call "tax compliance" is often the logical response to a 68% marginal rate. The problem isn't the taxpayer who adapts — it's the rate that forces them to. And when they leave, they take the tax base with them.