Understand

Trade · Employment · Globalisation

Protectionism

We're told that tariffs defend jobs against foreign competition. The reality: every cent of those taxes comes out of your pocket — not the foreign seller's. And the jobs "saved" often cost far more than it would have taken to retrain those workers into something with a future.

~650 000$ annual cost per job "saved" in US steel (Peterson Institute, 2018)
3 contre 1 for every job saved in US tires, 3 destroyed elsewhere (Hufbauer & Lowry, 2012)
−66% fall in world trade in two years after the 1930s protectionist spiral
01

You're the one who pays the tariff

There's an idea politicians love to sell: "We'll tax foreign goods — the foreigners pay." That's false. A 25% tariff on steel doesn't come out of the steelmaker's pocket in Shanghai. It comes out of the factory that buys that steel in France — and ultimately out of yours, when you buy the car, fridge or bike made with it.

The foreign exporter may slightly lower their export price to stay competitive. But in practice, they absorb a tiny fraction. The bulk of the tariff — up to 100% according to studies — is paid by companies and consumers in the taxing country. The New York Fed confirmed this in 2019 on Trump's tariffs: practically all the cost fell on Americans.

"A 25% tariff is a 25% tax on you." Amiti, Redding, Weinstein — Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 2019

Move the slider. With each tariff increase, see how much more you pay — and who gets what.

0%80%
💡 The key takeaway The foreign manufacturer absorbs almost nothing. The price rise falls almost entirely on you. The state pockets the tax — but part of the value simply disappears, as purchases that no longer happen. That's what protectionism destroys that nobody gets back.
02

The saved job — at what cost?

Protectionism always has a good story: the thousands of workers protection kept in their jobs. What you're not told is what each of those jobs cost — paid as a forced surcharge on every affected product, by every buyer in the country. The figure is consistently several times the annual salary of the worker supposedly being defended.

And that's only half the picture. Every time an industry is protected, the sectors that buy its products see their costs rise. Dearer steel → dearer cars and machines → fewer orders → job cuts. For every job saved in steel, several dozen quietly disappear in car factories, shipyards, and engineering workshops.

"~$650,000 a year to save a $50,000 job." Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2018 — US steel tariffs

Click a sector to see the real cost of its protection — and what else it could have funded.

💡 The key takeaway In every case, protecting a job through tariffs costs several times the worker's annual salary. That money could have funded their retraining, their income for several years, and let them move into something with a future. The reason this doesn't happen is political — not economic.
03

Countries that open their borders get richer

Singapore, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Germany: among the world's most open economies and among the richest. This is not a coincidence. When a country lets foreign goods in freely, its companies access the cheapest materials in the world. Its buyers pay less. And its industries, forced to compete, innovate rather than living on life support.

Protectionists often cite South Korea in the 1960s-80s: a country that first protected its industries before opening up. That's true — but incomplete. Those protections were temporary, targeted, and tied to performance requirements: protected companies had to prove they were becoming competitive or they lost their protection. That's not the model of the Lorraine steel industry or sugar beet subsidised for 40 years.

"Singapore: near-zero tariffs. GDP per head: $82,000." vs. India: 18% tariffs. GDP per head: $2,500. — World Bank, 2022

Click a country to see its average tariffs and standard of living. France highlighted in gold.

💡 The key takeaway The correlation isn't perfect — other factors matter. But the trend is clear: countries with low trade barriers tend to be richer. And the countries that most reduced their tariffs over the past 30 years — China, Vietnam, Bangladesh — are those that saw the greatest escape from poverty.
04

When everyone protects, everyone loses

The protectionist trap: every country has a reason to protect itself, whether the other side does or not. If they're open, you gain by closing. If they're closed, you want to defend yourself. Result: everyone closes — and everyone is poorer. This isn't abstract theory. It's what happened in 1930.

In June 1930, the United States passed the Smoot-Hawley Act: massive tariffs on 20,000 goods. Europe responded. Within two years, world trade collapsed by 66%. Industrial production plunged everywhere. Unemployment exploded across industrialised countries. Each national "defensive" measure made everyone more vulnerable — not stronger.

"1930: Smoot-Hawley. World trade: −66% in two years." the protectionist spiral that deepened the Great Depression

You run a country. Choose your strategy — and see where you and your partner end up.

🤝 Partner: open
🚧 Partner: closed
🤝 You: open
+10 / +10
Best for everyone
+3 / +12
You lose, they gain
🚧 You: closed
+12 / +3
You gain, they lose
+5 / +5
⚠ Where everyone ends up
💡 The key takeaway Protecting always seems safest: if the other is open, you gain more by closing (12>10); if they close, you limit damage (5>3). But since both countries reason the same way, everyone ends up at +5 — far less than the +10 of mutual free trade. This is why WTO agreements exist: to make these commitments officially binding.
05

The objections — reversed

Four arguments you hear in every free-trade debate. Click to see what each one actually reveals.

Click a card to flip the argument.

01 🏭

"Protectionism protects our jobs"

Flip →
01

It saves some jobs by destroying others. The 2018 Trump steel tariffs: 14,000 positions maintained in steel, 75,000 positions destroyed in industries that buy steel — cars, machinery, appliances. Net result: −61,000 jobs. Protectionism doesn't create jobs. It shifts them from future industries to past ones. (Francois & Baughman, CITAC, 2018)

02 🇨🇳

"China doesn't play fair — we must retaliate"

Flip →
02

Even when China subsidises its exports, it's you who pays the retaliatory tariff — not China. If they sell a solar panel at €100 thanks to state subsidies, your 25% tariff brings it to €125 for you: you just cancelled the gift they were giving you. The right response to a specific unfair practice: targeted measures on that product — not a trade war that penalises everyone.

03 🔒

"Some sectors are strategic — we can't abandon them"

Flip →
03

"Strategic" tends to mean: this sector pays its lobbyists well. Steel was "strategic" in the 1950s. Sugar beet has been "strategic" for 40 years. Real industrial sovereignty is built on tomorrow's sectors — energy, semiconductors, medicines. And it's built through investment, not through indefinitely protecting industries that should have modernised 20 years ago.

04 👷

"Free trade abandons affected workers"

Flip →
04

Free trade creates winners and losers — that's true. But helping the losers through training and income replacement costs far less than blocking trade for everyone. In the United States, Trade Adjustment Assistance has done this since 1962. In France, retraining schemes exist. The problem isn't economic — it's political: promising to "defend jobs" makes good speeches. Quietly funding retraining, less so.

Protectionism is reassuring. It's also costly.

It shows saved jobs and preserved factories. It hides the jobs destroyed downstream, the buyers made poorer, and the industries that never had to modernise — and that decline anyway, ten years later, having cost ten times more. Free trade doesn't solve everything. But closing borders solves nothing — it only delays pain while amplifying it. And it's always those with the least money who pay the most for protected products.